La Niña effects expected to be more pronounced toward late 2024
THE government weather service, known as PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration), said on Thursday that rains associated with La Niña may become more pronounced towards the end of the year, even though the weather phenomenon’s onset could come as early as June.
“We are seeing a higher possibility of La Niña to develop in June, but its effects may be seen during the later parts of the year,” Nathaniel T. Servando, PAGASA administrator, said in a briefing.
Mr. Servando added that the likelihood of La Niña occurring is 55% in June, July, and August, triggering the issue of a La Niña Watch bulletin.
According to PAGASA, La Niña is characterized by “unusually cooler than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP).”
He added that El Niño has started to weaken as it transitions to an ENSO-neutral (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) state in April, May, and June.
Weather conditions that are neither El Niño nor La Niña are considered to be ENSO-neutral.
“Despite the weakening of El Niño, we are expecting its effects to still be felt in the next few months,” he said.
In an advisory, PAGASA said 25 provinces in Luzon and five in the Visayas have the potential to develop drought conditions, while 22 may potentially experience dry spells. A further 15 may experience dry conditions.
“The warm and dry season will commence in March… The rainfall forecast for March shows that most parts of the country will likely experience way below to below-normal rainfall conditions,” PAGASA said.
The effects of drought and dry conditions threaten agricultural production, with a follow-on-impact on food security.
Agricultural damage resulting from El Niño has topped P1.06 billion, with Western Visayas hit hardest, according to a report by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. — Adrian H. Halili