PHL rice import forecast raised to 4.9 MMT in 2025
THE US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its Philippine rice import forecast to 4.9 million metric tons (MMT) for 2025.
In the Grain: World Markets and Trade Report issued Oct. 11, the USDA’s new forecast represents a 300,000 MMT from the September estimate.
The projection for next year is also higher than the 4.7 MMT forecast for 2024.
The USDA said the new import estimate was spurred by the smaller harvests expected for next year.
The USDA downgraded its Philippine domestic rice production estimate to 12.3 MMT in milled rice equivalent for 2025. This was lower than the 12.7 MMT issued last September.
Last year palay or unmilled rice production was 20.06 MMT, equivalent to about 13 MMT in milled rice.
The Department of Agriculture (DA) is projecting palay production at 20.1 MMT this year.
Palay production is estimated to have declined 11.4% year on year to 3.36 MMT during the third quarter, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).
Asked to comment, former Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar said rice imports will offset the negative effects on rice production by the effects El Niño and La Niña, and strong typhoons.
El Niño caused drought and dry spells throughout the first half of the year affecting local agricultural production. The government weather service, known as the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), declared El Niño to have ended in June.
PAGASA also estimates a 71% chance of La Niña forming between September and November, likely persisting until the first quarter.
La Niña weather event is expected to increase the likelihood of tropical cyclones and flooding.
“Both El Niño and La Niña including strong typhoons and the flooding have significant impact on rice production in 2024… you will have more rice imports to mitigate the potential shortfall,” Mr. Dar said via Viber.
Rice imports amounted to 3.29 MMT as of Oct. 3, the Bureau of Plant Industry reported.
In June, President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. signed Executive Order (EO) No. 62 which lowered the tariff on imported rice to 15% from 35% until 2028. This was meant to tame rice prices and plug gaps in domestic production.
Fermin D. Adriano, a former Agriculture undersecretary said via Viber that imports have been spurred by weather-related crop damage.
“DA has not revealed the harvest decline this year, but we expected it,” he added.
Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura Executive Director Jayson H. Cainglet said the main driver for higher rice imports was the lower tariff regime imposed by EO 62.
“Three months since the effectiveness of EO 62; rice prices are still high, the profits of importers/traders increased even more due to the reduced tariff, so it will remain the biggest driver in the deluge of rice imports,” Mr. Cainglet said via Viber.
The Philippines imports about 20% of its rice requirement due inadequate domestic production, but high rice prices have led the government to ease the way for imports.
The DA has said rice prices may decline staring mid-October, with the full impact of EO 62 expected to manifest by January.
According to DA Price monitors in Metro Manila, a kilogram of imported well-milled rice commanded prices of between P45 and P55 as of Oct. 10 dropping from P49 to P55 per kilo on Sept. 10.
Regular-milled rice fetched between P42 and P48 per kilo as of Oct. 10, falling from P49-P50 a month prior.
Meanwhile, the USDA said global rice imports are expected to increase next year due to India’s lifting of its the ban on non-basmati white rice exports. India is the world’s largest exporter of white rice.
“Global imports are forecast to rise with increases in several African and Asian markets following India’s trade policy changes, likely creating more available global supplies and lower prices,” the USDA said. — Adrian H. Halili