Deep dive into Nov. payrolls report flags weakness, keeping Dec. rate-cut on table

Investing.com — Job gains came roaring back in November following a slump in October, but a deeper dive into data point to sign of underlying weakness in the labor market, giving the Federal Reserve the green light to cut rates later this month, economists from Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) said in a Friday note.

Nonfarm payrolls grew by 227,000 in November, rebounding from an October reading that was depressed due to strikes and hurricanes, the economists said. The November payrolls report was boosted by 38,000 jobs gains following the conclusion of a few strikes, most notably at Boeing (NYSE:BA).

But this rebound wasn’t evident in the household survey, which showed employment declined 355,000 in November. The underlying details of the survey were “indicative of a labor market that continues to lose momentum gradually.”

While the household survey tends to be volatile, and less reliable given its smaller sample size, other data in the report flagged a softening labor market.

The share of unemployed workers out of a job for more than six months has risen to over 23%, comparable to levels seen in late 2017/early 2018, the economists said. 

The unemployment rate rising by one-tenth of a percentage point, and the labor force participation rate falling one-tenth also suggest that the labor market is softer than some expect. 

Barring any major surprises in the upcoming CPI and PPI data for November, the economists said they continue to expect the Fed to cut rates on Dec. 18.

“On balance, today’s employment data further reinforces our view that the FOMC will reduce the federal funds rate by 25 bps at its upcoming meeting on December 17–18,” the economists said.