Rice imports seen dropping below 4M MT on stronger-than-expected domestic output
THE Department of Agriculture (DA) said on Thursday that rice imports are expected to come in below 4 million metric tons (MT) as domestic producers are picking up the slack despite El Niño.
“We may not reach 4 million MT this year since production seems to be (on track) even with El Niño,” Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. said on government network PTV.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) had estimated Philippine rice imports at 4 million MT, which Mr. Laurel called a “worst-case scenario” should domestic production falter.
“The estimate (from) the USDA might be too high,” he added.
The 4 million MT USDA estimate itself is a downgrade from an earlier projection of 4.1 million.
Citing the Philippine Statistics Authority, Mr. Laurel said that harvest of palay, or unmilled rice, may hit 4.78 million MT in the first quarter, which if borne out would represent a 1.1% increase from a year earlier.
He said that the estimates are also in line with the projections of the Philippine Rice Research Institute and PRISM (Philippine Rice Information System).
“Total production (for the first quarter) should reach about 4.78 million MT. Also…there seems to be an incremental increase in production,” he added.
Mr. Laurel said that harvest for the second quarter could still be affected by El Niño.
The government weather service known as PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration), has said that El Niño is starting to weaken, though its effects may run until August.
“But after El Niño, we expect that the harvest will be okay,” he said, adding that the effect of La Niña, which will bring about higher-than-usual rainfall, may not be significant.
The likelihood of La Niña occurring is at 62% by June, the Department of Science and Technology said.
“We’re hoping there is a slight increase in production of rice for this year,” he added.
The DA is projecting palay product to top 20 million MT this year. Production in 2023 had been 20.06 million MT. — Adrian H. Halili