Singapore Nov core inflation at 1.9% y/y, lowest in almost 3 years

By Bing Hong Lok

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Singapore’s key consumer price gauge rose 1.9% in November on a yearly basis, lower than economists’ forecasts and the smallest rise in nearly three years, official data showed on Monday.

The core inflation rate – which excludes private road transport and accommodation costs – was lower than the 2.1% forecast by a Reuters poll of economists and compared with a 2.1% rise seen in October.

It was the smallest rise since November 2021, when it climbed by 1.6%.

Headline inflation was 1.6% in annual terms in November, lower than the 1.8% expected in the poll.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore had forecast core inflation to be around 2% in the fourth quarter.

Slowing inflation has created room for Singapore’s central bank to ease monetary policy in January but analysts have said the MAS might wait until later in 2025 on the back of incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies.

The MAS left monetary policy settings unchanged in October even as growth picked up and inflation declined. It has not changed policy since a tightening in October 2022, which was the fifth tightening in a row.

Last month, the trade ministry raised its GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 3.5% from a previous range of 2.0% to 3.0%, after third-quarter growth surpassed expectations at 5.4%.

Most economists polled in a MAS survey released recently expect the MAS to maintain its current monetary policy in its quarterly reviews in January, April and July.

A third of those polled in the MAS survey expected a January easing via a reduction in the slope of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate, down from half in the previous survey.